A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
